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Long lines at gas pump unlikely, but Middle East crisis could disrupt oil supplies_我的网站

A |     WASHINGTON -- Fifty years after the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the current crisis in the Middle East has the potential to disrupt global oil supplies and push prices higher. But don't expect a repeat of the catastrophic price hikes and long lines at the gasoline pump, experts say.The Israel-Hamas war is “definitely not good news” for oil markets already stretched by cutbacks in oil production from Saudi Arabia and Russia and expected stronger demand from China, the head of the International Energy Agency said.Markets will remain volatile, and the conflict could push oil prices higher, "which is definitely bad news for inflation,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based IEA, told The Associated Press. Developing countries that import oil and other fuels would be the most affected by higher prices, he said.International benchmark Brent crude traded above $91 a barrel on Thursday, up from $85 per barrel on Oct. 6, the day before Hamas attacked Israel, killing hundreds of civilians. Israel immediately launched airstrikes on Gaza, destroying entire neighborhoods and killing hundreds of Palestinian civilians in the days that have followed.Fluctuations since the attack pushed oil prices as high as $96. The price of oil depends on how much of it is getting used and how much is available. The latter is under threat because of the Hamas-Israel war, even though the Gaza Strip is not home to major crude production.One worry is that the fighting could lead to complications with Iran, home of some of the world’s largest oil reserves. Its crude production has been constrained by international sanctions, but oil is still flowing to China and other countries.“In order to get a sustained move (in prices), we really would need to see a supply disruption,” said Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston-based consultant.Any damage to Iranian oil infrastructure from a military strike by Israel could send prices jumping globally. Even without that, a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz that lies south of Iran could also shake the oil market because so much of the world’s supplies goes through the waterway.Until something like that happens, “the oil market is going to be like everyone else, monitoring the events in the Middle East,” Lipow said.One reason 1970s-style gas lines are unlikely: U.S. oil production is at an all-time high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, an arm of the Energy Department, reported that American oil production in the first week of October hit 13.2 million barrels per day, passing the previous record set in 2020 by 100,000 barrels. Weekly domestic oil production has doubled from the first week in October 2012 to now.“The energy crisis of 1973 taught us many things, but in my mind, the most critical is that American energy strength is a tremendous source of security, prosperity and freedom around the world,'' said Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, the U.S. oil industry's top lobbying group.In a speech Wednesday marking the 50th anniversary of the 1973 oil embargo, Sommers said current U.S. production contrasts sharply with “America’s weakened position during the Arab oil embargo.'' He urged U.S. policymakers to heed what he called the lessons of 1973.“We cannot squander our strategic advantage and retreat on energy leadership,'' said Sommers, who has repeatedly criticized President Joe Biden's policies restricting restricting new oil leases as part of Biden's efforts to slow global climate change.“With an unstable world, war in Europe, war in the Middle East, and energy demand outstripping supply, energy security is on the line,'' Sommers said in a speech at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank.“American oil and gas are needed now more than ever,'' Sommers said. “Let’s take to heart the lessons we learned from 1973 and avoid sowing the seeds of the next energy crisis.'' For now, the crisis isn’t a repeat of 1973. Arab countries aren’t attacking Israel in unison, and OPEC+ nations have not moved to restrict supplies or boost prices beyond a few extra dollars.There are several wild cards in the energy market. One is the supply of Iranian oil. Eager to avoid a spike in gasoline prices and inflation, the U.S. has quietly tolerated some exports of Iranian oil to destinations such as China instead of going all in on sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program. If Iran, which has warned Israel not to undertake a ground offensive, escalates the Gaza conflict — including a possible attack by Hezbollah militants in Lebanon supported by Iran — that might change the U.S. stance. “If the U.S. were then also to enforce the oil sanctions against Iran more strictly again, the oil market would tighten noticeably,” say commodities analysts at Commerzbank.Lawmakers from both parties have urged Biden to block Iranian oil sales, seeking to dry up one of the regime’s key sources of funding.Another wild card is how Saudi Arabia would respond if Iranian oil is restricted. Oil analysts say that while the Saudis may welcome recent oil price hikes, they don’t want a massive price spike that would fuel inflation, higher central bank interest rates and possible recession in oil-consuming countries that ultimately would limit or even kill off demand for oil. A third unknown is whether more oil will reach the market from Venezuela. The U.S. agreed Wednesday to temporarily suspend some sanctions on the country’s oil, gas and gold sectors after Venezuela’s government and a faction of its opposition formally agreed to work together on election reforms.Venezuelan production could increase in 2024. In the next six months, however, production could ramp up by some 200,000 barrels a day, a relative drop in the ocean, according to Sofia Guidi Di Sante, senior oil market analyst at Rystad Energy.Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, the top Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, slammed the U.S. action as a “gimmick” that appeases a brutal regime in Venezuela. “Joe Biden’s energy policies put America last,'' Barrasso said, citing the Democratic president's decisions to kill the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline and sell off significant portions of the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking it to its lowest level since the 1980s. The Energy Department said Thursday it will seek offers to start refilling the oil reserve in December, with monthly solicitations expected through May 2024.“He eased sanctions on Iran, which funds terrorism across the Middle East. Now with Israel under attack, Biden is desperate for anything to mask the consequences of his reckless policies,'' Barrasso said. “America should never beg for oil from socialist dictators or terrorists.''The Treasury Department says it has targeted nearly 1,000 individuals and entities connected to terrorism and terrorist financing by the Iranian regime and its proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah and other groups in the region. "We will continue to take action as appropriate to counter Iran’s destabilizing activity in the region and around the world,” Treasury said in a statement.____McHugh reported from Frankfurt, Germany. Choe reported from New York.。    AI摘要      第18批援博茨瓦纳医疗队践行“授人以渔”，通过精准救治与“边救治、边带教”模式，培训当地医生掌握骨髓穿刺等核心技术，致力为博茨瓦纳打造一支“带不走的医疗队”。

B |          东南网8月19日报道（本网记者 冯川叶）今年6月26日，第18批援博茨瓦纳医疗队启程，跨越万里奔赴非洲。

C | 一个多月来，他们以“边救治、边带教”的模式在当地扎根，用每一次精准诊断、每一台规范手术、每一场床旁教学，践行着“授人以渔”的承诺。8月19日，他们迎来在异国他乡的首个中国医师节。他们用过硬医术和无私带教，致力为博茨瓦纳打造一支“带不走的医疗队”。         陈显凌医生带着三位徒弟开展骨髓穿刺及活检培训。（医疗队供图）     “3秒，不疼了！”     抵达当地仅一周，中国援博茨瓦纳医疗队弗朗西斯敦分队的队员们还正处于适应环境的休整期。一次突如其来的求助，让这支队伍在异国他乡迎来了“首秀”。    7月5日晚，一名在博茨瓦纳弗朗西斯敦的华人青年在篮球运动中意外受伤，突发肩关节剧痛，患肢抬举困难且活动完全受限。当地华人商会紧急联系了医疗队寻求专业救助。接到求助后，医疗队迅速联动队内骨科专业力量，紧急启动救治预案。接诊的是来自福建医科大学附属第一医院骨科的曾锦源副主任医师。

D | 面对焦急的伤者，曾医师迅速进行了细致的体格检查，精准诊断为急性肩关节脱位，评估符合无创即时手法复位的救治条件。

E |     为最大限度减轻伤者痛苦、规避远期损伤风险，曾医师当即决定实施手法复位。凭借扎实的正骨功底与丰富的临床经验，他精准发力、巧妙对位，仅耗时3秒便成功完成复位。随着关节归位的轻响，伤者的剧烈疼痛即刻缓解，肩关节活动功能迅速恢复正常。随后，他向伤者细致叮嘱了后续关节制动与休养护理的细则，详细讲解了运动损伤的防护要点及禁忌事项，帮助其规避二次受伤风险，并提供了全流程的康复指导。复位成功后，这位华人青年激动地竖起大拇指连连称赞。这短短3秒钟的“中国速度”，不仅瞬间解除了患者的痛苦，更充分展现了中国医者的专业与担当。    授人以渔 让技术扎根非洲大地     “‘授人以鱼不如授人以渔’，我们把带教作为援助的一项重点工作，为当地打造一支带不走的医疗队。”这是第18批援博茨瓦纳中国医疗队队长、福建中医药大学附属康复医院纪委书记侯德梁在出征时接受记者采访时说的一句话。一个多月以来，医疗队通过一次次“手把手”教学，用实际行动践行承诺。    骨髓穿刺及活检是血液科医师必备的核心临床操作。抵达博茨瓦纳玛丽娜公主医院不到两周，来自医疗队血液科的陈显凌主任医师、医学博士迅速投身临床救治与本土人才带教工作。本次参加培训的三名当地医学生，此前均无独立实操经验。从患者体位摆放、局部麻醉要点把控，到骨穿进针角度、进针力度调整，再到骨髓活检标本获取、标准骨髓涂片制备，陈显凌将整套操作流程逐一拆解。现场示范每一个关键动作，细致讲解技术要点、风险防范要点以及无菌操作规范，毫无保留分享临床经验。实操过程中实时纠正手法细节，引导学员建立严谨规范的临床思维。    在陈显凌的全程监护与带教指导下，三名当地医学生依次独立完成骨髓穿刺+活检全套操作，全部实现一次穿刺成功。操作顺利完成的那一刻，病房现场响起阵阵掌声。首次独立完成这项高难度操作，当地学员倍感振奋，实操的成功大大提振了他们开展血液病诊疗工作的信心。

F |     不久前，当地一台宫颈锥切手术遇到棘手状况：术中视野暴露不佳、病灶边界分辨不清，当地医师操作受阻，手术难以继续推进。妇科易靖艺医生立刻上台接手。凭借娴熟的手术技巧，他精准划定切除范围，规范完成病灶切除与创面止血。更为关键的是，易靖艺在操作过程中结合实操，同步向当地医护讲解解剖辨识要点、手术角度把控方法以及术中难点处理经验——在解决临床急症的同时开展即时带教。这种“边做边教”的方式获得当地医生高度认可，他们表示：“中国医生不仅帮我们完成了手术，更教会了我们如何处理类似复杂情况。

G | ”     针对博茨瓦纳眼科医疗资源有限、药物依赖度高的现状，医疗队眼科黄礼彬医生大力推广选择性激光小梁成形术及眼底视网膜激光光凝治疗。这两项微创激光技术既能有效控制眼压、阻止眼底病变进展，大幅降低致盲风险，又能减少药物依赖，切实减轻患者就医经济负担。在开展治疗的同时，黄礼彬手把手带教当地医生，悉心传授激光技术的适应症筛选、参数调试与术后随访规范，将一套适配当地诊疗现状的防盲技术完整地留在了博茨瓦纳。

H | 这一举措不仅为当地眼科患者带来了新的治疗希望，也为本土医生提供了可持续开展的技术工具。

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